MORRIS: Data Shows That Polls Favor DEMS
After Wednesday night’s smashing debate victory for Mitt Romney, we may expect the national and swing state polls to change in the Republican’s direction. But not by as much as they should.
These polls are biased in favor of President Obama and national political analyst Dick Morris says he has the data to prove it. (Karl Rove also agrees with Morris’ premise).
From noted Republican pollster John McLaughlin comes a clear and convincing expose of the bias of media polls in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
McLaughlin reviewed exit polls in each state for the past four elections. From this data about who actually voted, he found that the party divisions manifest on election day have little to do with the samples upon which the media is basing its polling. And, coincidentally, it is always the Republican vote that tends to be undercounted.
In Florida, for example, McLaughlin finds that the average of the last four elections produced a turnout of 37 percent Democrats and 38 percent Republicans. But here is the partisan distribution of the most recent Florida media polls:
9-26 CBS/NY Times: 36% Dem 27% Rep 9-23 Wash Post 35% Dem 29% Rep
So the media polls reflect a 9 point and six point Democratic edge even though the actual experience of the past four elections has been a 1 point Republican advantage.
Things are no better in Ohio. Here, McLaughlin finds a 2 point Democratic edge in the past four elections (38 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican). But the media polls show vastly more Democrats and fewer Republicans in their samples:
9-26 CBS/NYTimes 35 percent Dem 26 percent Rep 9-23 Wash Post 35 percent Dem 27 percent Rep 9-11 NBC/WSJ 38 percent Dem 28 percent Rep
Once again, the measured vote of exit polls in Ohio shows a 2 point Democratic edge, but the polls reflect Democratic advantages of 9 points, 8 points, and 10 points respectively.
BELOW ARE A POST-DEBATE TWEET BY ROVE AND A PRE-DEBATE COLUMN ……
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON DEBATE NIGHT: Rove said on Twitter – Closing: Forward-looking & up for the job. Viewers got good sense of who Romney is & what he would do as POTUS.
And here’s a VIDEO from Sept. 26 of Rove warning against reading too much into the polls that were trending Obama’s way:
AND HERE’S THE MOST RECENT ROVE COLUMN WRITTEN BEFORE THE DEBATE. ROVE CALLED IT RIGHT ….
Voters expect Mitt Romney to blow the whistle in the debates, veteran pol Karl Rove said in his weekly column in the Wall Street Journal.
Rove gives several examples of false and misleading advertisements by Obama and his campaign and says Romney should call the president out.
One Obama spot says, “To pay for huge, new tax breaks for millionaires like him, Romney would have to raise taxes on the middle class: $2,000 for a family with children.”
That claim has been thoroughly discredited, including by PolitiFact Virginia and editorials in this newspaper. Mr. Romney, unlike the president, is committed to cutting taxes for everyone, including the middle class.
Another ad says, “As a corporate raider, [Mr. Romney] shipped jobs to China and Mexico.” In response, the Washington Post editorialized, “On just about every level, this ad is misleading, unfair and untrue.” As recently as Sept. 17, Mr. Obama claimed in Ohio that Mr. Romney’s “experience has been owning companies that were called ‘pioneers’ in the business of outsourcing jobs to countries like China.” But that claim, too, is a fabrication.
There is more. An Obama ad aimed at northern Virginia women intones, “Mitt Romney opposes requiring coverage for contraception.” In fact, Mr. Romney opposes the president’s unprecedented assault on religious liberties—in this case, the federal government forcing religious institutions (like church-sponsored hospitals, schools and charities) to provide insurance coverage for contraception in violation of their fundamental moral values and, incidentally, the First Amendment.
Candidates always have disagreements, arguing over the meaning of events or evidence. But Mr. Obama has taken ordinary political differences beyond anything we’ve seen. Every day, it seems, he attempts to disqualify his opponent through deliberate and undeniable falsehoods.
This is only one side of a two-sided coin. The president can’t tell the truth about his own record either.